Offseason checklist for the Montreal Canadiens

At the beginning of the season, Juraj Slafkovsky struggled mightily to the point where many felt he should have been assigned to the minors.  Instead, Montreal went the other way and put him on the top line and things clicked for him from there.  The top pick in 2022 went on to put up 35 points in the final 40 games of the season, moving him from a sure-fire bridge candidate to one they’ll likely try to sign long-term.  Given Montreal’s salary structure, it’s reasonable to infer they’d prefer to slot him behind Nick Suzuki whose deal checks in at $7.875M per season.  However, with what first-overall picks typically get on long-term agreements (generally more than this), will he be amenable to that or will he push for more?  If it’s the latter, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the two sides wait until the 2025 offseason to see if his second half was an outlier or a sign of things to come.

The other notable extension-eligible candidate is Kaiden Guhle.  The 22-year-old blueliner made the jump from junior two years ago and has logged over 20 minutes a night in his first two seasons.  With a bit of a limited offensive game, his earnings ceiling will be limited but he could still push past $6M per season on a max-term deal.  Having said that, Guhle has battled injuries both years so an extension would be somewhat of a shared risk scenario.  Guhle would be risking leaving some money on the table if he’s able to stay healthy and have a big year next season while Montreal would be risking a significant commitment to a thus-far injury-prone player but if he stays healthy, they could potentially get him at a team-friendly rate.  Seeing if there’s a number where both sides are content should be fairly high on the to-do list.

Add Scoring Help

The last time Montreal finished in the top half of the league in goals scored was back in 2018-19.  They’ve finished 26th the last two seasons and 27th the year before that.  Only two players scored more than 20 goals this season, Suzuki and Caufield.  Even if they feel the top line from the second half of the year (those two with Slafkovsky) is a legitimate top trio, they need a lot of secondary scoring behind them.

The return of Kirby Dach should help after he missed almost the entire season with a knee injury while they will bank on Alex Newhook taking another step forward in his development.  Accordingly, it’s reasonable for them to hope that some improvement will come internally.  That said, internal improvement alone won’t be enough to propel them back into a playoff race let alone the actual playoffs.

Under this management group, the Canadiens have avoided adding players in free agency, preferring to build via the trade market.  They’ve flipped a first-round pick in back-to-back years to add Dach and Newhook and, armed with an extra first-rounder again for next month’s draft, many expect them to do so again, whether that’s for another player of that ilk or as part of a bigger swing.

Beyond that, this might be the time for them to look at a shorter-term unrestricted free agent as well, one that can augment the scoring depth for a few years and serve as somewhat of a mentor to what is a fairly young group.  Having said that, they will have a decision to make before July 1st if they intend to go that route.

Escape Or Utilize LTIR

Two years ago, Montreal elected to go into offseason LTIR, giving them the flexibility to take on Sean Monahan from Calgary, receiving a 2025 first-round pick for their troubles.  That worked out well for the Canadiens considering they signed him to a cheap one-year deal last spring and then flipped him for another first-rounder earlier this season.

Last summer, they elected not to do that, instead waiting until in-season to put Carey Priceon LTIR.  That move gave them more flexibility but they then didn’t do much of anything with that flexibility.

Accordingly, that might not be the best approach to take this time around.  Price still has two years left on his $10.5M contract although his playing days are over.  Flipping him will be difficult considering there is still $11M in signing bonuses still left to be paid on it.

So, Hughes needs to determine if he wants to go back into offseason LTIR or not.  If he does, they could be players either in free agency or perhaps taking on a short-term pricey contract as they did with Monahan two years ago.  Even with the cap set to rise by more than $1M this time around, there will be teams looking to move out some salary.  The benefit would be more future than current as they’d likely be compensated with a draft pick but if they’re not in a spot where they think they can push for a playoff spot – which would be a lofty goal – then they wouldn’t be concerned about that.

If they don’t want to go into offseason LTIR, it might be worth them trying to dip out of it altogether.  They currently have about $78.6M in commitments, per CapFriendly, with Barron and Arber Xhekaj being the only two RFAs on the roster who could command a seven-figure contract.  That would still leave them room to try to add a piece while also staying under the cap ceiling (meaning Price would be on regular IR), allowing them to bank money for in-season flexibility or to try to avoid incurring a seven-figure bonus overage for the third straight year, a move that would help them cap-wise heading into 2025-26.  They’ll want to have their direction picked out by the time free agency opens up.